. (Bloomberg) After the incumbent backed a slew of measures to ease economic hardship, the poll found that President Jair Bolsonaro was statistically tied with his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s most populous state.
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According to Quaest’s survey, 37% of Sao Paulo voters plan to support Lula in the first round, while 35% support Bolsonaro. Within the poll’s credibility interval, the challenger has a lead.
Sao Paulo state, home to more than 44 million people, is a major target for presidential candidates and a leading indicator of national trends. Experts in politics are keeping a close eye on Bolsonaro’s popularity in the run-up to the October vote to see if recent tax cuts that reduced fuel prices and a multi-billion dollar aid package will help him.
The average national poll gives Lula a ten-point lead over the incumbent. But as of this week, the new government aid program, which includes increased cash handouts for the poor, has begun rolling out.
More here: Bolsonaro’s Extreme Campaign Talking Points
Quaest found that since March, Bolsonaro’s popularity has risen 10 points while Lula’s has remained relatively stable in the state of Sao Paulo, which includes Brazil’s financial hub as well as vast swaths of farm land. The former army captain won the state election by an overwhelming margin in 2018.
The survey, conducted by Genial Investimentos between August 5 and 8, polled 2,000 adults in the state of Sao Paulo and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
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