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Entire summers worth of rain may fall from Texas, Oklahoma to Louisiana

Central southern Mississippi will receive heavy rain, while other regions of the country will experience a wetter-than-usual summer.

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Heavy rain is developing along a corridor stretching from northern Texas and southern Oklahoma to the central portions of Mississippi, and it is expected to last through the middle of the week. As the event progresses, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to use words like “drenching,” “drought-easing,” “deluge,” and “dangerous” to describe it.

Forecasters warn that in some places, the entire summer’s worth of precipitation can fall in just a few days.

The setup, known as a training effect in the field of meteorology, is likely to produce persistent, heavy rain that may last for several days. While the forecast of heavy rain may sound like good news to some, the pattern also has a less appealing side. Just a few short hours passed before the deadly flooding in St. Louis and parts of Kentucky this summer.

Recent reports from the United States Drought Monitor indicate that severe drought or worse persisted across about 60% of the south-central United States. However, if the widespread 4-8 inch rainfall that AccuWeather forecasters predict for the next few days comes to pass, that percentage could drop dramatically.

From June 4th through August 9th, Dallas received very little precipitation compared to the average of around 6 inches. Much of Texas and Oklahoma had a similar experience during the same time period. A stationary frontal boundary draped from northern Texas to the Interstate 20 corridor in Louisiana and Mississippi will be recharged with tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the southwestern United States, according to AccuWeather. Two rounds of thunderstorms have visited some locations since August 9, leading to highly-isolated flash flooding. Excessive precipitation is expected due to a confluence of weather systems and moisture.

From the northern Texas border with New Mexico to central Alabama, a massive band of 2–4 inches of rain is expected to arrive by midweek. Near Dallas to the Shreveport, Louisiana, area “may experience a pocket of 8-12 inches of rain,” Spinetti cautioned.

Nowhere in the 2- to 4-inch zone is out of the question, but northeastern Texas and northwest Louisiana have the best chance of seeing the 16-inch AccuWeather Local StormMaxTM. AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno stated, “It’s hard to imagine that how rainfall of that magnitude with high rates of runoff would not be tremendously disruptive and potentially dangerous and damaging.”

Any city, given the pattern, is vulnerable to rapid runoff. Despite preexisting soil moisture conditions, in areas with persistent downpours, some streams and rivers may experience significant and rapid rises.

AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Mark Mancuso elaborated, “Hourly rainfall rates could reach 2-3 inches with 6 inches possible in 12 hours or less.” Dallas receives an average of 8 inches of rain between June 1 and August 31. It rains an average of 11 inches per year in Shreveport. Both of these cities, along with others, could receive the equivalent of three months’ worth of precipitation in just a few days.

The dry landscape and hard soils in much of Texas and parts of Oklahoma cause rapid runoff whenever it rains. As one travels eastward, the soil becomes increasingly saturated as a result of repeated downpours and storms over the past few weeks.

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Commuters, homeowners, and business owners, as well as emergency management officials, should all stock up on supplies in case flooding occurs due to the setup’s high likelihood of repeated downpours and potential for excessive rainfall. There is a very real danger to people and their possessions.

Even though the frontal zone is expected to sag slowly to the southeast through midweek, Spinetti says that the areas between I-20 in west-central Texas and the Hill Country may be spared from the heaviest rain.

The Rio Grande received 5-10 inches of rain from a tropical rainstorm that moved ashore last week and nearly developed into a tropical depression.

If a storm system forms along the front, it will push dry air south across the southern Plains, but it will also pull moisture north, keeping the downpour threat in the Southeast states alive until mid- to late-week. Late next week, there is a chance that areas from Alabama to Georgia and the Carolinas will experience flooding issues as heavy rain intensifies further to the east.

Spinetti warned that next weekend’s tropical development over the Gulf Stream would need to be monitored as the area of disturbed weather lingered off the southern Atlantic coast. The upcoming week is predicted to be wet along much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

By Tuesday, drier air is expected to have eliminated the threat of flooding in northwest Texas, north central Texas, and southern Oklahoma. In contrast, as one region dries out, another may become more wet than usual. Austin, Houston, the area near San Antonio, and Victoria, Texas could see heavy rain and a higher risk of flash flooding on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

On Saturday night, a tropical disturbance that AccuWeather forecasters had been keeping a close eye on in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico encountered dry air and more hostile development conditions near the coast of Mexico. Nothing developed into a tropical depression from this system. Rain from the system and the downpour zone in northern Texas will be drawn northward into parts of coastal Texas, but it is unlikely that this rain will make its way to the lower Rio Grande Valley.

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