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It looks like the tropics will finally heat up next week

Don’t get too prepared for the rains yet. Tropical activity will become active again briefly during the middle of next week, but do keep a better weather eye open in the short term future.



Repeated at 8:20 AM EDT

Don’t let your guard down. According to long-range computer forecast models, whatever factor or factors have been keeping tropical activity unusually quiet will begin to ease around the middle of next week.

Two tropical disturbances, each with their own unique complexity, have been tracked by the National Hurricane Center.

No. 1 Tropical Disturbance is a haphazard band of showers resembling a swarm of bees moving westward across the Caribbean. There will be no immediate effects, but a system to the south may become relevant by the middle of next week when the storm reaches the western Caribbean.

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The disturbance may interact with a broad area of low pressure over and near Central America to form a well-organized system over the western Caribbean by the end of next week. Even though there are a lot of unknowns, this is not an impossible scenario. It is common for a tropical disturbance to spark growth in a mass of moisture being drawn north from the tropics.

Nothing has shown up yet. Mostly, this is just conjecture based on mathematical models used to predict the weather. Possible system approach to the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico. They should make the locals aware.

The latest computer forecast models and the National Hurricane Center’s forecast indicate that Tropical Disturbance #2 is more likely to develop. It’s made up of two separate disturbances—one to the south and one that originated over Africa—that have loosely combined to form a large, complicated area of low pressure. The disjointed nature of the system suggests that any attempt at organization will take more time. Even though the combo system will have to overcome the dry air over the Atlantic in order to develop, there may be enough moisture in the system to do so.

Once again, nothing is anticipated in the next couple of days, but by midweek, the forecast atmospheric environment looks more supportive of tropical development, despite the persistence of dry air. It is still a close call whether a developing system can become a named storm before the end of August on Wednesday, even if it does develop into a more organized system.

In August, it’s extremely unusual for there to be no storms. On the other hand, that doesn’t mean September won’t be a hectic month.

In the event that this system develops, people in the northeastern Caribbean islands should monitor its progress closely.

Tracking the Tropics with Bryan Norcross is a podcast hosted by Bryan Norcross, a FOX Weather hurricane specialist. It’s available for download right now, so get it while you can.