The (Bloomberg) After supporting a flurry of initiatives to ameliorate economic hardship, President Jair Bolsonaro is statistically deadlocked with socialist competitor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s most populous state, a new survey reveals.
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According to the Quaest poll, Bolsonaro is a close second with 35% of Sao Paulo voters’ intentions to vote for Lula in the first round. The poll’s error margin covers the challenger’s lead.
The state of Sao Paulo, which has a population of over 44 million, is a key electoral prize for presidential candidates and could be a sign of broader national tendencies. Political analysts are now carefully observing to see if recent tax cuts that decreased fuel costs and a multi-billion dollar relief package will improve Bolsonaro’s standing before the elections in October.
The incumbent is in the rear of Lula in the majority of significant national polls by roughly 10 percentage points. However, this week saw the start of the new government aid program, which includes increased cash transfers for the underprivileged.
Bolsonaro Is Increasing His Radical Rhetoric in the Run-Up to the Election
In Sao Paulo, which is home to both Brazil’s financial center and significant tracts of farmland, Lula’s support has remained largely unchanged, while Bolsonaro has increased by 10 points since March, according to Quaest. The former army captain easily won the state during the 2018 election.
Between August 5 and August 8, 2,000 participants were surveyed throughout Sao Paulo state for the survey, which had a +/- 2 percentage point margin of error.
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